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データ基準日: 2026-11-02 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 20D -9.85% slide, contango weighs; below 448.92 targets 443.42 | 2026-11-03

Bearish ZC=F (December 2026 CBOT corn, ZCZ26.CBT). Settle 448.25 [settle 2026-11-02] is down 9.85% over 20 sessions and sits just 0.4% above the 20-day low of 447.5, with ATR14 at 6.86 (1.53% of price) and RV20 at 19.2% confirming an active, persistently down-trending market rather than a quiet one. The term structure is in contango: M1-M2 at -13.25 (-2.87%) with a roll yield of -11.5%, a structural drag for long holders that rewards short exposure. Three reasons support the bearish call: (1) price has closed lower in four of the last five settled sessions and closed the last completed week at 447.75, down 1.81% w/w; (2) the next-session pivot ladder (NEXT) has pivot P at 448.92, R1 at 451.33 and S1 at 445.83, and the settle is already below P — a weak position that leaves S1 and S2 at 443.42 as the path of least resistance; (3) seasonality over the next 20 sessions is negative on average (mean -1.43%, median -1%, up only 7 of 15 years), aligning with rather than against the trend. Invalidation is a daily settle above R1 at 451.33, which would mark the first close above the NEXT pivot zone since the slide began. Trade trigger: a daily close below S1 at 445.83 targets S2 at 443.42, roughly one ATR below. Risk metrics support caution: DD20d is 11.86%, Sharpe30 is -8.26 and VaR95 is -1.97%. Macro headwinds are modest: DXY at 101.78 and 10Y at 4.89% [2026-11-02].