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データ基準日: 2026-11-02 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 20D -12.4% slide, oversold bounce stays a sell | 2026-11-03

We stay SHORT wheat (ZCW26.CBT). The trend lower is the dominant signal: settle 606.5 [settle 2026-11-02] is down 12.39% over 20 sessions, with ATR14 at 13.68 (2.26% of price) confirming high-momentum, high-range conditions and RV20 at 18% showing realized volatility is elevated but not yet panic. Every one of the last five settled bars closed lower than it opened or failed to hold intraday gains; the last completed week (2026-10-26 to 2026-10-30) closed at 603.5, down 3.44% w/w, and the 20-day range ex-today is 593.25–706.5 with price sitting at just 11.7% of that channel. The supply picture offers no support: wheat is a contango market (M1-M2 -13.5, roll yield -8.75%), meaning carry is negative for longs and the curve is paying shorts to wait. Invalidation is a daily settle above NEXT R1 610.33; a daily settle below NEXT S1 601.83 opens S2 597.17 and the 20-day low 593.25. Seasonality is a mild headwind (mean -1.84% over the next 20 sessions, up only 5 of 15 years). No Asia print was available for this issue, so report-date levels are intraday observations only.