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데이터 기준일: 2026-11-02 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

SHFE.BU(BU2701) Deep Analysis Report | Bearish: Night Session Plummets, Breaking Pivot, Confirmed by Decline in Open Interest | 2026-11-03

Direction: Bearish. BU2701 [11-02 Settlement] 5276, Night Session [11-02 23:00] Close 4989, down -5.44% from settlement, directly breaking the next pivot P 5247 and S1 5078. Core Logic: 1. Fundamentals: Main position decreased by 10,452 hands day-on-day, top 20 seats net long decreased by 9,317 hands, indicating active long liquidation.
2. Volatility Extreme: ATR14 210.07 (4.04%), RV20 72.1%, the night session daily decline of -5.44% has exceeded 1 times ATR, significantly amplifying holding risk under high volatility.
3. Technical: After +7.68% over 5 days, price reached the high-end region of the 20-day channel at 68.2%, and the night session long black candle engulfed the previous four days' gains, establishing a short-term top structure. Failure Condition: If the daily close recovers above 5247 (the next pivot P) and holds, the bearish structure fails, turning to neutral observation.