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データ基準日: 2026-11-03 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

DCE.RR(RR2612) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bearish: Rebound capped by 20-day moving average, maintain short positioning below 3536 | 2026-11-04

Medium-term bearish view on japonica rice lead contract RR2612. Core logic: at the [2026-11-03 settlement], price of 3534 remains at the 51% level of the 20-day range 3436–3630, indicating an interim rebound within a downtrend rather than a trend reversal; the 20-day change of -2.27% confirms the medium-term downtrend structure remains unbroken. On the supply side, pressure from new japonica rice hitting the market coincides with a continued decline in open interest (lead contract open interest 22264 lots, -211 lots versus the prior session); the price rebound has not been accompanied by capital inflows, indicating short-covering. Technically, RV20 is 15.6% while ATR14 is only 32.93 points (0.93%); volatility has contracted, but price remains capped below the next-session pivot P at 3536.67, with R1 at 3548.33 and S1 at 3523.33 forming a narrow range. Invalidation criteria: a daily close firmly above 3548.33 (pivot R1) would dismantle the bearish structure, shifting to a neutral wait-and-see stance; a break below 3523.33 (pivot S1) would confirm the downtrend extension, targeting the 20-day low of 3436.