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データ基準日: 2026-11-03 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Bearish Relief Rally Into 3.022–3.334 Supply, Net Short Unwound | 2026-11-04

We stay SHORT NG=F (December 2026, NGZ26.NYM). The 7.68% five-day rebound is a short-covering bounce inside a -6.74% 20-day downtrend, not a trend change: price settled at 2.904 [settle 2026-11-03], only 48.6% of the 2.497–3.334 20-day range, with managed-money net short positioning cut by 48,908 contracts w/w to -206,317 — fuel for the rally now largely spent. Three pillars: (1) structure — M1–M2 contango of -0.492 (-14.7%) and a roll yield of -176.34% means longs pay a severe carry penalty, and the 2.904 settle sits below the 3.022 R2 pivot; (2) flow — the w/w net-short reduction of 48,908 against a +7.68% 5D price move is active short covering, not fresh long conviction, while OI fell 29,641 contracts, confirming the move is unwinding rather than new positioning; (3) technical — RV20 of 50.8% against an ATR14 of 0.1544 (5.32% of price) leaves the asset in a high-volatility regime with no stability baseline, and the 20-day channel top at 3.334 remains intact overhead. Invalidation is a daily settle above 3.022 (R2); a settle below 2.8127 (NEXT S2) retargets 2.768 (RETRO S2). Seasonality is unsupportive: the next 20 sessions average -1.36% (median -7.02%, up only 5 of 15 years).