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データ基準日: 2026-11-03 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Rebar (RB2701) Deep Analysis Report | Increase in Long and Short Positions Breaks Below 20-Day Low, Bearish Outlook | 2026-11-04

Direction: Bearish. RB2701 [11-03 Settlement] 3002 broke below the 20-day low of 3006, triggering a short signal. Three core reasons: First, price broke below the lower bound of the 20-day range with active long-side liquidation, with net short positions of the top 20 accounts reaching 8,061 contracts; Second, social inventory increased by 2.7% YoY, ending the destocking phase; Third, the 1-year copper-to-gold ratio at 98.02% indicates global industrial commodity valuation pressure. Direction invalidation condition: Daily close above 3028. Technically, ATR14 is 25.93, with the next pivot point P at 3000 and S1 at 2981. Fundamentally, steel mill inventory decreased by 143,000 tonnes YoY, but social inventory rebounded, accumulating supply-demand contradictions. Position structure indicates short-side dominance. Cross-asset ratios show weak industrial demand expectations.