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データ基準日: 2026-11-03 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish breakdown below 20-day low, target 436.83 | 2026-11-04

We stay SHORT corn (ZCZ26.CBT). The 442.5 settle [2026-11-03] broke below the prior 20-day low of 446.5 (excl. today), confirming a downside continuation of the -12.89% 20D trend rather than a dip to buy. The 20D channel spans 441.25–509.75 with price at 1.8% of the range low, so the breakout has minimal overhead supply but also thin incremental follow-through; ATR14 is 6.95 (1.57% of price) and RV20 is 16.6%, so a 3.7-point risk budget is roughly half a normal session range. Fundamentally the term structure is in deep contango, M1–M2 at -13.75 (-2.98%) with a roll yield of -11.9%, a structural penalty to longs that aligns with the price trend rather than contradicting it. Seasonality is neutral-to-slightly-negative (mean -1.07%, median 0%, up 7 of 15 years) and offers no counterweight. Cross-asset ratios are not a corn driver; the relevant read is that the DXY at 101.87 and 10Y at 4.95% are a mild headwind to commodity pricing but not the core thesis. Invalidation is a daily settle above 451.33 (NEXT R2); a daily close below 439.67 (NEXT S1) targets 436.83 (NEXT S2).