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データ基準日: 2026-11-03 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybeans (ZS=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 20-Day Low Break, Weak Crush Confirms Down Trend | 2026-11-04

Bearish ZS=F (January 2027 CBOT soybeans, ZSF27.CBT); invalidation is a daily settle above the NEXT pivot R1 at 1209.
17. The 11-03 settle of 1203 broke below the prior 20-day low at 1204, confirming the seven-week downtrend rather than a false breakdown. Momentum is uniformly negative: 1D -0.15%, 5D -2.14%, 20D -7.67% [settle 11-03], with price in the bottom 4.1% of the 1198.5-1309 20-day range. Fundamentals corroborate: the US crush margin fell to 2.1425 USD/bu [11-02] from 2.4575 twenty sessions earlier, sitting at the 32.94% one-year percentile — demand-side weakness, not just supply weight. Term structure shows M1-M2 contango at -9.75 (-0.79%) with a roll yield of -4.77%, a carrying cost to longs. Volatility is subdued (ATR14 15.91, RV20 8.5%), so the move is a low-volatility grind lower rather than a panic flush. A break below NEXT S1 at 1197.67 targets S2 at 1192.33. Risk events this week — ISM Services, NFP, and China CPI/PPI — could shift the demand narrative; a surprise in either direction matters for export demand.