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データ基準日: 2026-11-03 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Momentum Overshoot vs Weak Demand, Target 589.58 | 2026-11-04

We stay SHORT wheat (ZW=F, December 2026 CBOT ZWZ26.CBT). The settle of 599.75 [settle 2026-11-03] confirms a fourth consecutive lower daily close and a -14.84% 20-day decline that has sliced through both the 20-day and 52-week midpoints with no reversal bar. Fundamentals reinforce the technicals: the M1–M2 spread sits at -13 (-2.1%) contango with an -8.39% roll yield, meaning the market is paying storers to hold and there is no premium for prompt scarcity. Demand-side proxies argue against a squeeze: the 3:2:1 crack spread at 49.71 USD/bbl [2026-11-03] shows refining margins absorbing crude strength rather than signaling grain demand stress, while the oil/gold ratio at 0.0246 (1Y percentile 97.62%) and copper/gold at 1.62 (1Y percentile 98.02%) describe a risk backdrop in which industrial and energy-linked commodities are rich relative to gold — a regime that has historically coincided with soft, deflation-leaning agricultural demand. Realized volatility of 15.7% (RV20) against ATR14 of 13.73 (2.29% of price) shows the downtrend is orderly, not climactic, leaving room for trend extension rather than an exhaustion squeeze. Invalidation is a daily settle above 606.67 (next-session R1); a daily settle below 594.67 (next-session S1) targets 589.58 (S2). Seasonality is a headwind: the next 20 sessions average -2.24% (median -3.18%, up only 5 of 15 years).