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데이터 기준일: 2026-11-03 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

Iron Ore (I2701) Deep Analysis | Bearish: Decrease in Position + Net Short Position, Looking at 667.5 Below | 2026-11-04

Direction: Bearish. The core logic comprises three points: First, I2701 settled at 671.5 yuan/ton on [2026-11-03], down 4.01% for the day, with the price at the 22.4% low end of the 20-day range between 660 and 709 yuan/ton, and the medium-to-long term moving averages exerting obvious pressure. Second, the net short position of the front 20 seats was 39,491 contracts, which, although narrowed by 3,745 hands from the previous day, has not changed the net short pattern; the main force's nominal holdings decreased by 3.47 billion yuan day-on-day, showing a pattern of decreasing positions and falling prices as multiple players exit. Third, signs of a rise in social steel inventory have appeared, with social inventory in early October 2026 reaching 939 million tons, up 2.7% month-on-month, gradually revealing supply pressure, which constrains iron ore prices. Failure condition for the direction: If the daily close breaks above the next pivot R1 at 675 yuan/ton, the short-term bearish logic will fail, and a neutral outlook should be adopted instead.