본 리포트 제공 MacroTerms.com

데이터 기준일: 2026-11-03 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — LME Stock Surge Breaks Momentum, Target 6.1897 | 2026-11-04

Bearish COMEX copper (HGZ26): the front-month continuous contract settles at 6.402 [settle 2026-11-03], down 2.52% on the day and 3.77% over five sessions, and a decisive close below the NEXT pivot 6.4242 confirms the short-term down-leg. Three drivers align. First, inventory: LME warehouse stocks jumped +19,775 MT (+7.22%) to 293,775 MT [2026-11-02] with a 20-report build of +48,875 MT, the dominant bearish shock, overwhelming a 10.85% one-day draw in SHFE warrants to 9,450 MT [2026-11-03]. Second, technicals: price sits at 17.8% of its 6.318–6.789 20-day range with ATR14 at 0.1367 (2.14% of price) and RV20 at 21.7%, so the breakdown carries above-average volatility without an exhaustion tail. Third, positioning: managed-money net length fell to 40,575 contracts (Δ = -7,115 w/w, COT as-of 2026-10-27) with crowding at only the 38.04 3-year percentile — a bearish price trend that is not yet crowded, leaving room for further liquidation. Invalidation is a daily settle back above 6.4242 (pivot P); a break below 6.2958 (S1) targets 6.1897 (S2), roughly one ATR beyond. Macro support is absent: DXY at 101.87 and 10Y at 4.95% [2026-11-03] keep the carry against commodities, and the copper/gold ratio at 1.65 (99.6% 1Y percentile) marks copper's pro-growth outperformance as extended rather than a discount. Seasonality offers no offset: the next-20-session median is -0.25%.