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データ基準日: 2026-11-03 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Prompt Backwardation Fails to Stop $8 Asia Breakdown | 2026-11-05

Bearish Brent (BZF27.NYM): the front month has broken the 100.53 next-session S1 in early Asia and we expect the slide toward 97.46 S2 to continue; invalidation is a daily settle back above 106.94 (NEXT R1). Three reasons: (1) price action is deteriorating fast — a -5.31% 5-day move against a +6.16% 20-day gain shows a failed probe of the 114.29 20-day high, and the 11-02 and 11-03 settled bars are the two weakest consecutive closes in the sequence; (2) the physical bid is being overwhelmed by macro liquidation — distillate stocks at -12.8% vs the 5-year average and a 2.66 M1-M2 backwardation confirm a tight prompt barrel, but that has not prevented a -7.92% Asia collapse to 95.39; (3) positioning and seasonality align — 20-day realized vol at 40.5% with ^OVX at 58.81 shows options markets pricing further downside tail, and the 15-year 20-session seasonal mean is -3.52% with only 5 of 15 years up. The 52-week range is 57.92-114.29 and the 20-day channel (ex-today) is 94.71-114.29, so the Asia low at 94.73 is testing the very bottom of the recent channel. Refinery utilization at 94.5% and crude stocks -5.0% vs the 5-year average are supportive facts but are being traded as lagging indicators. Strategy: stay short on breaks below 100.53, targeting 97.46; a stop above 106.94 is consistent with ATR14 of 4.24.