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データ基準日: 2026-11-04 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

WTI Crude (CL=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Oversold Bounce Fails, Demand Destruction Now the Driver | 2026-11-05

Bearish WTI (CLZ26.NYM). The front-month contract settled at 88.04 [settle 2026-11-04], down 8.38% on the day and 14.34% over five sessions, after an 11-04 session that traded as low as 87.13 — the bottom of the 20-day range ex-today (87.96–110.48). The collapse is not a supply shock; it is a demand-side repricing. EIA distillate stocks are -12.8% vs the 5-year same-week average with a 4-week cumulative draw of -5,879 kb, while refinery utilization runs at 94.5% — refiners are producing into a distillate demand cliff, and the 3:2:1 crack at 49.53 USD/bbl (P3Y 82.8%) has not yet compressed enough to clear the product glut. Crude stocks at 409,760 kb are -5.0% vs the 5-year average, but that is a logistics overhang, not a bullish tightness signal. Managed-money net length has collapsed from 53,598 (10-06) to 31,128 (10-27) with netPct at a 3-year crowding percentile of just 11.28 — the long is uncrowded, but CTA trend at 98 confirms systematic shorts are the marginal driver, not discretionary buying. Backwardation of M1-M2 at 1.32 (1.39%) is a demand-rationing signal, not a supply-tightness signal. Invalidation: a daily settle above NEXT R1 94.417.