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データ基準日: 2026-11-04 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Iron Ore (I2701) In-Depth Analysis | Short-Covering-Driven Rebound, Bullish Near the Lower End of the 20-Day Range | 2026-11-05

Direction: Moderately bullish. Core logic: I2701 daily [11-04 close] 682, +1.56% vs. prior settlement, marking a short-covering rally on declining open interest; net short position of the top 20 seats expanded by 3,915 lots day-over-day to 43,406 lots. Price and net short expanding in tandem does not constitute a divergence, indicating shorts do not hold overwhelming control. Price stands above the next pivot P 679.5; the 20-day position is at 57.9%, slightly above the middle band; ATR14 of 12 (1.76%) indicates a volatility rebound. Fundamentally, steel inventory destocking continues; early-October social inventories rose +2.7% month-over-month at a moderate pace, and steel mills face limited production-cut pressure. The international vs. China market premium is +7.09%, remaining in positive territory, with the China market relatively stronger. Seasonally, over the past 13 years, the average 20-trading-day return from the same start date was +5.05%, with gains in 10/13 years. Direction failure condition: daily close breaks below S1 674.