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データ基準日: 2026-11-04 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | LONG into NFP — momentum reclaim above 4000, crowded longs cap upside | 2026-11-05

We stay LONG COMEX December gold (GCZ26). Invalidation: a daily settle below NEXT S1 3973.73 breaks the reclaim of the 4000 handle and flips the call to neutral. Three reasons: (1) price settled 4073 [settle 2026-11-04], +3.37% on the day and back above the NEXT pivot P 4027.47, recovering from the 3879.3 twenty-day low in three sessions; (2) the balance sheet is constructive — COMEX registered stocks are 14.69 Moz with a -0.4 Moz 20-report drift while SHFE warrants build (+1,500 kg d/d to 118,404 kg), a split that keeps deliverable metal tight in the benchmark contract; (3) macro tailwinds — DXY at 101.51 and 10Y at 4.89% [2026-11-04] with VIX falling 4.22 pts — support a bid for gold even as risk sentiment stabilizes. The trade is not without friction: managed-money net length at 26.6% of OI sits at a 90.23 3-year crowding percentile, and the gold/silver ratio at 77.9 (1Y pctile 92.86%) shows silver lagging, so the move is gold-led rather than a broad precious-metals rally. With ^GVZ at 24.11 versus RV20 23.7% (IV/RV 1.02), optionality is fairly priced into Friday's NFP. Risk: VaR95 -2.94%, DD20d 7.53%.