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データ基準日: 2026-11-04 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — LME Stock Surge Confirms Weak Demand | 2026-11-05

Bearish HG=F (COMEX December copper, HGZ26.CMX): the front-month contract should be sold on rallies toward the 6.51 pivot; a daily settle above 6.5117 invalidates. Three factors drive the call. First, price action is deteriorating — the 6.429 settle [2026-11-04] is down 3.63% over five sessions and sits in the lower half of the 6.318–6.789 20-day range (ex-today, 30.5% percentile), with intraday action on 2026-11-05 at 6.4163 (Asia, -0.2% vs settle) showing no rebound impulse. Second, the inventory signal has flipped decisively bearish: LME warehouse stocks rose 15,875 MT (+5.4%) to 309,650 MT [2026-11-03], extending a +66,675 MT 20-report build, while SHFE warrants collapsed 16.98% to 7,845 MT [2026-11-04] — a pattern consistent with material flowing to LME sheds as Chinese offtake stalls. Third, positioning is not crowded (crowd 38.04, 3-year percentile), so there is room for the net-length liquidation already underway to continue. Valuation is not a constraint: the copper/gold ratio at 1.58 (1Y pctile 91.67%) remains historically rich, leaving room for copper to mean-revert toward gold. Seasonality offers mild support (+1.38% mean) but is a small sample. Trade: short bias, invalidation above a 6.5117 daily settle.