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データ基準日: 2026-11-04 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Sub-$3.334 Range, Money Managers Net Short | 2026-11-05

We stay SHORT natural gas (NG=F, front-month mapping to NGF27.NYM). The asset settled at 2.95 [settle 2026-11-04], up 1.9% on the day and 4.72% over five sessions, but it remains down 7.9% over 20 sessions and sits at only the 54.1% percentile of its 2.497–3.334 20-day range — a bounce inside a downtrend, not a reversal. The fundamental backdrop is bearish: term structure is in steep contango (M1–M2 −14.65%, roll yield −175.83%), indicating ample prompt supply and penalizing longs at every roll. Managed money has been aggressively adding shorts for four straight weeks, with net positioning at −206,317 contracts as of 2026-10-27 and net percent at −12.27% of open interest — a trend aligned with price, not a contrarian signal. Realized volatility is elevated at 50% with ATR14 at 0.1568 (5.32% of price), so risk management is essential, but direction favors shorts. Invalidation requires a daily settle above 3.0907 (NEXT R2), which would reclaim the 20-day range's upper half. Conversely, a break below 2.8593 (NEXT S1) targets 2.7687 (NEXT S2). Seasonality is mixed but leans bearish (mean −2.26%, median −7.02% over the next 20 sessions). Macro headwinds include a firm dollar (DXY 101.51) and elevated 10Y yields (4.89%).