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データ基準日: 2026-11-04 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Shanghai Gold 2612 Deep Report | Short Covering Drives Rally, Bullish but Approaching Overbought | 2026-11-05

Direction: Bullish. Shanghai Gold 2612 rebounded strongly on the back of short covering (daily rise +2.52%) on the back of the [2026-11-04 settlement] price of 852.8 yuan/gram. Main force reduced positions by 1,597 lots in tandem with rising prices, characteristic of a short-covering type rally. International COMEX December gold moved up synchronously (+3.37% to $4,073), directions are consistent internationally and domestically. China premium -0.73% is at a low level, providing a safety cushion for the domestic market. Core drivers are the weak US dollar (DXY 101.52, -0.34%) and falling Treasury yields (10Y 4.89%, -1.17%). Technically, the price rebounded from the 20-day interval lower band of 831 to the 44.5% position, but the 20-day decline remains -4.74%, and the trend has not been fully repaired. COT net long ratio of hedge funds is 26.6%, crowding degree 90.23% is at a 3-year high, limiting room for further upside. Failure conditions: Daily close breaks pivot S1 at 851.2 yuan/gram, or COMEX gold breaks below $3,973.73.