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データ基準日: 2026-11-04 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | LONG — Oversold Bounce vs 49.75 Invalidation | 2026-11-05

We turn LONG silver (SIZ26.CMX) with an invalidation on a daily settle below 49.753, the 2026-11-03 close. The market is deeply oversold after a 13.29% 20-day decline, and the 2026-11-04 session printed a +5.08% settle surge at 52.282 on the back of a sharp 4.89%→lower dollar and a 10Y yield at 4.894, with spot silver up 5.28% in early Asia trade. Three pillars support the call: (1) momentum — the settle reclaimed the NEXT pivot P at 51.252 and the prior RETRO R2 at 52.058, turning the pivot ladder positive; (2) positioning — CFTC managed-money net length has been liquidated to a 27.9 3-year crowding percentile, leaving room for re-leveraging without a crowded-long risk; (3) relative value — the gold/silver ratio sits at 77.9 (1Y pctile 92.86%), meaning silver has been lagging gold and has catch-up room as the precious-metals complex rallies on a weakening dollar. Risks are real: the 20-day range remains 48.62–61.845, the weekly trend is down (last completed week closed -8.66% at 49.276), and RV20 at 46.5% with ATR14 at 2.146 (4.1% of price) means a 52-handle long carries roughly a 6.13% VaR95. Seasonality is a mild headwind (mean -0.57% over the next 20 sessions). We treat this as an oversold bounce within a downtrend, not a trend reversal, and size accordingly. A daily settle below 49.753 invalidates the bounce and returns control to the bears.