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データ基準日: 2026-11-04 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Momentum Breakdown Targets 434.58 | 2026-11-05

Bearish ZC=F (December 2026 CBOT corn, ZCZ26.CBT). The settle at 444.25 [settle 2026-11-04] extends a 20-day decline of -11.5% and sits below the daily pivot P at 443.33 on the NEXT ladder, confirming a sustained downtrend rather than a range. Three drivers support the short: (1) price closed below S1 at 439.67 on the RETRO ladder and below the 20-day range midpoint, with the 20-day channel spanning 438.5-504.75 and the prior ex-today range 441.25-509.75, leaving overhead supply thick between 448 and 452; (2) realized volatility of 16.9% against an ATR14 of 7.2 (1.62% of price) shows trend persistence with below-average range expansion, a profile consistent with controlled selling, not panic; (3) the term structure is in contango at M1-M2 -13.75 (-3.01%) with a roll yield of -12.05%, penalizing long holders and rewarding short carry. Invalidation requires a daily settle above 452.08 (NEXT R2), which would negate the down-channel. On a break below 434.58 (NEXT S2), the target is 434.58 minus 0.5×ATR, toward 430.
9. Risk metrics corroborate: DD20d 11.94%, Sharpe30 -8.06, VaR95 -1.97%. Seasonality is neutral-to-slightly-negative (mean -0.78%).