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データ基準日: 2026-11-04 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybeans (ZS=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 20-Day Low Break, Weak Crush Confirms Down Trend | 2026-11-05

Bearish ZS=F (January 2027 CBOT soybeans, ZSF27.CBT). The 2026-11-04 settlement of 1193.25 broke below the prior 20-day low of 1198.5, confirming a three-week downtrend that has now erased 8.03% over 20 sessions. We stay short on momentum, weak demand economics, and a soft fundamental backdrop. First, price structure is unambiguous: five consecutive lower settlements from 1222.25 to 1193.25, with ATR14 at 15.86 (1.33% of price) and RV20 at 8.6% showing a low-volatility grind lower — the classic profile of an orderly, persistent downtrend rather than a panic bottom. Second, the US soybean crush margin fell to 2.1468 USD/bu on 2026-11-03 from 2.4658 twenty sessions earlier, sitting at just the 32.94% 1-year percentile; processor demand is not tightening the balance enough to absorb supply. Third, term structure is in contango (M1-M2 at -6.75, roll yield -3.32%), a carry configuration consistent with ample nearby availability and a passive headwind for longs. Invalidation requires a daily settle above the NEXT pivot resistance at 1200.25; a daily settle below 1187.5 (NEXT S1) would extend the slide toward 1181.75 (NEXT S2). Macro support is absent: DXY at 101.51 and 10Y at 4.89% give no tailwind, and Friday's US jobs data plus China CPI/PPI on 11-09 are the near-term risk events for this export-exposed market.