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データ基準日: 2026-11-04 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bearish Bias | 2026-11-05

We stay SHORT wheat (ZWZ26.CBT). The prior session's settlement at 598.5 [settle 2026-11-04] confirms a market in a hard downtrend: 20D -12.82%, price sitting at just 7.4% of its 20-day range, and the last completed weekly bar closing -3.44% w/w at 603.
5. The supply-demand backdrop offers no fundamental bid, and the term structure's deep contango (M1-M2 -1.8%) penalizes longs while rewarding short roll. Invalidation is a daily settle above 606.17 (next-session R1); a daily close below 590.92 (next-session S1) opens 583.33 (S2). Three reasons: (1) technical structure — price has settled lower in four of the last five sessions and the 11-04 session rejected the RETRO pivot at 601.58; (2) volatility signature — RV20 at 14.3% with ATR14 at 13.84 shows a fast, trending market, not a choppy one, and there is no implied-vol premium signaling a priced-in risk premium; (3) seasonality — the next 20 sessions average -2.17% (median -3.18%, up only 5 of 15 years). Fund flows and cross-asset ratios corroborate: gold/silver at 77.9 (1Y pctile 92.86%) and copper/gold at 1.58 (1Y pctile 91.67%) describe a risk-averse macro tape, and a strong dollar at DXY 101.51 pressures grain export competitiveness. The 20-day channel (excl. today: 593.25-706.
5) shows how much room remains below.