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データ基準日: 2026-11-04 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Prompt Backwardation Fails to Stop the Slide | 2026-11-06

Bearish: hold short or sell rallies against a daily settle back above 101.86 (NEXT R1); a settle above that level invalidates the call. Brent's front-month continuous contract (mapped to BZF27.NYM) settled 94.62 on 2026-11-04, down 8.67% on the day and 15.25% over five sessions, breaking decisively below the prior 20-day low of 96.95. The sell-off is not a single-bar artifact: the last five settled bars show a cascade from 113.43 to 94.62 with an expanding range on 11-04 (H 104.87, L 93.
4). Three drivers underpin the call. First, momentum and volatility confirm the breakdown — ATR14 has widened to 4.873 (5.15% of price) and RV20 stands at 52.4%, while the next-session pivot ladder collapsed from P 103.87 to P 97.63, with S1 at 90.39. Second, the physical backdrop is mixed-to-bearish: EIA crude stocks at 409,760 kb are 5.0% below the five-year average after a four-week draw of 14,374 kb, but distillate at -12.8% versus average with 94.5% refinery utilization suggests demand-side stress rather than scarcity. Third, cross-asset signals are risk-off: VIX at 28.18 (99th percentile of the past year) and OVX at 60.29 confirm event-risk hedging, while the 3:2:1 crack at 47.85 USD/bbl fails to signal supportive product demand. Intraday price on 2026-11-06 in Asia was last at 99.25 (+4.89% versus settle) — a rebound within a downtrend, not a reversal. Target 90.39 (NEXT S1) on a break below 94.62; stop beyond 101.86.