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データ基準日: 2026-11-05 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | Bullish bounce vs 90th-pct crowded longs | 2026-11-06

We stay LONG COMEX December gold (GCZ26.CMX); invalidation is a daily settle below the next-session S1 at 4068.4, which would return price inside the broken 11-04 pivot range and mark the 3898.9 low as the next downside reference. The call rests on three legs: (1) momentum — the 11-05 settle at 4113.5 is +0.99% on the day and +2.04% over five sessions, recovering from the 3879.3 twenty-day low, with the 11-04 close at 4073 confirming a higher high and higher low versus 11-03; (2) physical bid — SHFE warrants are unchanged at 118,404 kg after a +1,500 kg build on 11-04 and are +2,376 kg over twenty reports, while COMEX registered stocks fell -0.31 Moz d/d to 14.38 Moz with a -0.69 Moz twenty-report drift; (3) macro tailwind — DXY at 101.59 and 10Y yield at 4.84% [2026-11-05] are not constraining a market where a December hike probability above 80% has failed to cap price. The main disagreement with the data is positioning: managed-money net length is at a 90.23% three-year crowding percentile and GLD holdings fell -1.84% over twenty sessions, so the rally is futures-led rather than broad-based. With IV at 25.83 only 1.8 vol points above RV20 at 24%, optionality is not expensive; we treat the 4157.2 R1 as the first objective and 4200.9 R2 as the extension.