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データ基準日: 2026-11-05 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Contango, Record Net Short, Seasonal Headwind | 2026-11-06

We stay SHORT natural gas (NG=F, continuous mapping to NGF27.NYM). The fundamental backdrop is dominated by a heavily oversupplied storage picture and a deeply negative term structure: M1-M2 contango of -0.473 (-13.78%) with a roll yield of -165.38% signals abundant prompt availability and a persistent carry penalty for longs. Managed-money net positioning is a record -206,317 contracts (as of 2026-10-27 COT), a -48,908 w/w increase in net shorts, confirming an aggressively bearish institutional consensus. Technically, the contract settled at 2.952 [settle 2026-11-05], down -0.24% on the day and -6.82% over 20 sessions, with ATR14 at 0.1498 (5.07% of price) indicating elevated volatility. The 20-day range is 2.497-3.334, and price sits at 54.4% of that range. Seasonality is a strong headwind: the next 20 sessions average -2.46% (median -7.02%, up only 6 of 15 years). The primary upside risk is a cold Northern Hemisphere winter surprise or a production shut-in, which could force a violent short squeeze given the crowded short positioning. Invalidation requires a daily settle above the NEXT pivot R1 at 2.9917, which would target R2 at 3.0313. We prefer expressing the bearish view via short futures or long puts, respecting the elevated volatility regime (RV20 50.1%).