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データ基準日: 2026-11-05 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

SHFE Gold (AU2612) In-Depth Analysis Report | Short-Covering-Driven Rebound, Bullish but Approaching Prior-High Resistance | 2026-11-06

Direction: Bullish. SHFE Gold AU2612 closed the night session at 881.56 [11-05 night session], up from the [11-05 settlement] 879.26, with the core driver being short covering (dominant position reduction of 6,859 lots accompanied by a +4.07% gain); COMEX gold stabilized at 4,113.5 [11-05 settlement] and GLD holdings stabilized. On the fundamentals, SHFE gold warehouse warrants of 118,404 kg [11-05] are at a high for the period, while COMEX registered warrants fell to 14.38 Moz [11-03], with a cumulative -0.69 Moz over the past 20 sessions; tight supply supports prices. Technically, gold is at the 69% level of the 20-day channel [831-913, excluding the current day], ATR14 16.05, and the next pivot P at 881.83; holding above P could open a test of R1 896.65. Risks: GVZ implied volatility of 25.83 exceeds RV20 24%, indicating the market has already priced in risk; COT crowding of 90.23 is at a 3-year high, so long crowding warrants caution. Invalidation condition: a daily close below 872.73 (next pivot S1).