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データ基準日: 2026-11-05 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | LONG into oversold washout — SIZ26 above 51.5 targets 54.38 | 2026-11-06

We turn LONG SIZ26 (SI=F continuous mapping) on a 52.376 [settle 2026-11-05] base, invalidation on a daily settle below the NEXT S1 at 51.496. Three pillars: (1) a 20D -11.86% drawdown has washed out length while price reclaimed the 50-handle and held above the RETRO pivot 51.252, with the 11-05 bar an outside-up day (H 53.495 vs 11-04 H 52.495, C 52.376 vs 49.753); (2) managed-money net length collapsed to 3,321 contracts (10-27 COT, crowd percentile 27.
9) — a de-crowded long base with CTA trend proxy at +0.26 still a tailwind on reclaim; (3) gold/silver at 78.54 [2026-11-05, 1Y pctile 93.65%] means silver is the laggard metal with the highest beta-catch-up optionality into a still-soft dollar (DXY 101.59) and 10Y at 4.84%. Trade mechanics: ATR14 is 2.201 (≈4.2% of price), RV20 46.5%, ^VXSLV 47.27 — IV/RV 1.02, so optionality is near fair value and the long is funded by spot rather than premium. Trigger reads as a break above NEXT R1 53.376 targeting R2 54.375 (≥0.5×ATR beyond the trigger); the deeper scenario is a break below 51.496 toward S2 50.615, which is the invalidation path, not the trade. Inventory tone is supportive, not tight: COMEX registered 103.65 Moz [2026-11-03, +0.83 over 20 reports] and SLV +2.43% over 20 sessions, while SHFE warrants drew down 109,696 kg over 20 reports to 1,380,708 kg [2026-11-05]. Seasonality is a mild headwind (next 20 sessions mean -0.45%, 5 of 15 up) and is context only. Risk events: 11-06 NFP (F 65K vs P 29K, surprise outside ±36K) and Average Hourly Earnings (F 0.3% vs P 0.1%, ±0.2%) hit SI directly; a soft print below 29K or AHE under 0.1% is the catalyst path toward 54.375. Positioning is not crowded and the 20D channel low at 48.62 [excl. today] is the macro stop reference, well beyond one ATR from price.