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データ基準日: 2026-11-05 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 440 Settle, Oversold Bounce Sell | 2026-11-06

Bearish ZC=F (December 2026 CBOT corn, ZCZ26.CBT); invalidate on a daily settle above 450.33 (NEXT R2). Corn settled 440 on 2026-11-05, down 0.96% on the day, down 2.49% over five sessions and down 12.04% over twenty sessions — a persistent, orderly downtrend, not a panic. ATR14 is 7.18, about 1.63% of price, so a normal full day range is roughly seven points; RV20 of 16.9% is elevated but not blow-off. The decline has been grinding: the last five settled bars show lower highs on every session (452, 448.5, 447.25, 447.75 against a 440 close), and price sits at 440 versus a 20-day range of 438.5–504.75 — pinned to the bottom of the channel, just 1.5 points above the 20-day low, with the 52-week low at 398.5 still 41.5 points below. Fundamentals echo the chart: term structure is in contango at M1-M2 of -14 (-3.06%) with a roll yield of -12.22%, a classic signal of ample nearby supply carrying a negative roll cost for longs. Macro headwinds add pressure: DXY at 101.59 and 10Y yields at 4.84% [2026-11-05] are a firm-dollar, firm-rate backdrop that historically weighs on dollar-priced grains. Risk metrics confirm the trend is tradeable but punishing: 52-week drawdown 18.51%, 30-day Sharpe -7.3, VaR95 -1.97%. With no Asia print available for the report date, analysis anchors on the 2026-11-05 settlement. Strategy: stay short, sell strength toward NEXT pivot 442.58 and R1 445.17; only a daily settle above 450.33 flips the view.