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データ基準日: 2026-11-05 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybeans (ZS=F) Deep Dive | Bearish breakdown below 20-day low, target 1166 | 2026-11-06

Bearish ZS=F (January 2027 CBOT soybeans, ZSF27.CBT). The 2026-11-05 settlement of 1181 broke below the prior 20-day low of 1188.75, confirming a downside channel that has now produced eight consecutive lower daily settlements and a 20-day decline of 8.27%. Momentum, term structure, and a deteriorating crush margin all align on the short side. First, price action is unambiguous: the market has settled lower every session since 10-30, ATR14 stands at 16.46 (1.39% of price) with RV20 at 8.8%, and the next-session pivot ladder (NEXT) places support at S1 1173.5 and S2 1166 below a pivot of 1187. Second, fundamentals are soft: the US soybean crush margin of 2.065 USD/bu as of 2026-11-04 has fallen from 2.5174 twenty sessions earlier and sits at only the 30.16% one-year percentile, indicating weakening processor demand precisely as supplies pressure the market. Third, term structure confirms the bearish tilt: the M1-M2 spread is in contango at -8 (-0.66%) with a roll yield of -3.97%, penalizing longs. Seasonality offers only mild +1.32% mean upside context. Invalidation requires a daily close back above the NEXT pivot at 1187; a daily close below S1 1173.5 targets S2 1166. Risk metrics support the bearish stance: Sharpe30 is -6.32 and VaR95 is -1.5%.