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データ基準日: 2026-11-05 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 20D -12.29% slide, contango confirms ample supply | 2026-11-06

We stay SHORT wheat (ZW=F, mapped to CBOT December wheat ZWZ26.CBT). The prior settlement is 599.25 [settle 2026-11-05], down 12.29% over 20 sessions, with ATR14 at 13.59 (2.27% of price) and RV20 at 14.6% — an elevated-volatility downtrend, not a quiet drift. Three factors drive the call: first, the supply-demand block shows inventories above the 5-year average, with no tightening signal in the data provided; second, the term structure is in contango (M1-M2 -1.8%, roll yield -7.22%), which confirms ample near-term supply and imposes a roll cost on longs; third, price action is decisively bearish — the market settled below the NEXT pivot P 600.58, and the 20-day range ex-today is 591–691.75, with price near the bottom. Invalidation is a daily close above 611.08 (NEXT R2). Seasonality is mixed (mean -1.97% over the next 20 sessions, 5 of 15 years up) and is context only. No Asia print was available for this issue, so all levels are anchored on the prior settlement. The bearish trend is the dominant signal; we fade rallies toward NEXT R1 605.
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