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데이터 기준일: 2026-11-05 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

Rebar (RB2701) Deep Analysis Report | Bearish: Light Positioning on the Bounce, Inventory Turning Point Pressures | 2026-11-06

Direction: Bearish. Core logic consists of three points: First, the price structure is weak; RB2701 [11-05 Settlement] 3030, daily change -0.62%, positioned at 46.2% below the 20-day interval range of 2988-3105, and the rebound failed to effectively break above the upper-middle section of the range; Second, the nature of funds is qualitatively identified as short covering rather than active long-side participation; main force holdings decreased by 123,696 lots compared to the previous round, price rose 1.43% with a decrease in holdings, and the top 20 seats' net long position was only 5,793 hands, which, although expanded by 11,016 hands from the previous day, has an extremely thin absolute net long position, lacking supportive speculative buying; Third, fundamental inventory shows unfavorable signals, the China Iron and Steel Association's weekly report shows social inventory of 9390,000 tons in early October 2026, up 2.7% week-on-week, ending the previous destocking trend and turning to stockpiling, while key steel mill inventory, although down to 1,565,000 tons in mid-September, the social inventory turning point imposes more direct price pressure. Technical face RV20 is 8.2%, ATR14 is 26.71, volatility is in a contraction state, and the sustainability of light positioning on the bounce is doubtful in a low-volatility environment. Failure condition: if the daily close breaks above the next round's pivot R1 at 3056.67, the bearish structure is broken, and observation is needed.