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データ基準日: 2026-11-05 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Deep Dive | SHORT — Demand-Shock Break of 94.74 Targets 91.18 | 2026-11-07

Bearish. The front-month Brent continuous contract (mapped to BZF27.NYM) settled 98.29 [settle 2026-11-05], down 11.29% over five sessions, with an ATR14 of 4.95 (5.04% of price) and RV20 at 52.7% confirming a high-volatility downtrend. The break below the 20-day low at 93.4 (ex-today) and the next-session pivot S1 at 94.737 signals a demand-driven collapse rather than a geopolitical spike. The invalidation level is 100.55 (next-session pivot R1); a daily settle above 100.55 would negate the bearish call. Fundamentals support the bearish view: EIA crude stocks at 409,760 kb (2026-10-30) are down 5.0% vs the 5-year same-week average, but distillate stocks at 99,259 kb are down 12.8% vs the 5-year average, indicating weakening distillate demand. The 3:2:1 crack at 47.96 USD/bbl [2026-11-06] shows refining margins compressing, consistent with demand destruction. The term structure in backwardation (M1-M2 at 3.38) reflects supply tightness, but the price action is dominated by demand-side weakness. Cross-asset ratios show the oil/gold ratio at 0.0222 (1Y pctile 85.71%), suggesting oil remains relatively rich vs gold, with room to fall. The copper/gold ratio at 1.53 (1Y pctile 79.76%) signals pro-growth positioning that is vulnerable. The bias is SHORT; a break below 94.737 (next-session S1) targets 91.183 (next-session S2).