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データ基準日: 2026-11-06 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

WTI Crude (CL=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Oversold Bounce Fails, Target 87.19 | 2026-11-07

Bearish WTI (CL=F front-month, mapped to CLZ26.NYM). The 5-day collapse of -13.23% has broken the back of the uptrend, and the balance of evidence points to lower prices, not a durable bottom. First, the technical structure has deteriorated decisively: settle 90.34 [2026-11-06] sits at only 15.5% of its 20-day range (86.65–110.48), with every pivot ladder trending lower and next-session support at 88.763 (S1) and 87.187 (S2). Second, the fundamental bid is fading: distillate stocks at -12.8% vs the 5-year average signal demand destruction, refinery utilization at 94.5% is peak-run with nowhere to go but down, and the 3:2:1 crack at 47.78 USD/bbl (P3Y 81.61%) shows margins already rich — a combination that historically caps crude runs rather than extends them. Third, positioning is NOT a crowded short — CFTC net length at 21,728 contracts with crowding at just the 9.6 percentile leaves ample room for further liquidation. The IV−RV premium of +2.5 vol points (OVX 58.29 vs RV20 55.8%) confirms the market is paying up for downside protection, not complacency. Invalidation: a daily settle above 92.223 (next-session R1) would negate the bearish call and target 94.107 (R2). Seasonality is a headwind too: the next 20 sessions average -4.12% over the last 15 years. We remain short-biased into the 87.19 target zone, with the 20-day low at 86.65 as the deeper objective. Backwardation (M1-M2 at 1.32) reflects physical tightness but has not prevented the washout.