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データ基準日: 2026-11-06 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | Bullish bounce vs. 90th-pct crowded longs | 2026-11-07

Bullish on COMEX December gold (GCZ26): hold longs while the 11-06 settle at 4074.9 holds above the NEXT pivot 4075.4 reclaim zone; invalidation is a daily settle below S1 4034.
6. Three reasons: (1) price has recovered +4.51% over five sessions from the 3879.3 twenty-day low and reclaimed the 4000 handle, with the 11-04 bar closing at 4073.0 — the first close above 4000 since the 20D -3.35% drawdown began; (2) physical flows support the bid — SHFE warrants rose +2,376 kg over 20 reports to 118,404 kg [2026-11-06] while COMEX registered fell -0.71 Moz to 14.36 Moz [2026-11-04], a divergence consistent with Eastern delivery-bar demand absorbing Western inventories; (3) macro tailwinds — DXY at 102.28 and 10Y at 4.86% [2026-11-06] did not cap the rebound, and the World Bank's call for gold above $4,000 through 2028 anchors structural demand. Risks: managed-money net length is at a 90.1 3-year crowding percentile [COT 2026-11-03] with net declining -1,948 contracts w/w while price rose — a divergence that limits new-entry quality. The 20-day range remains 3879.3–4242.3 (pos 53.9%), ATR14 84.98 (2.09%), RV20 23.5% vs GVZ 25.97 (IV/RV 1.
11). Seasonality is mildly negative (mean -0.43%, next 20 sessions, 15-year sample). No Asia print was available for this issue; report-date levels are intraday only.