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データ基準日: 2026-11-06 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | SHORT toward 6.1352 unless 6.3432 is reclaimed | 2026-11-07

We are SHORT COMEX copper (HGZ26.CMX); invalidation is a daily settle above 6.3432 (NEXT R2). The market is in a confirmed short-term downtrend: settle 6.2375 [2026-11-06] is down 6.79% over 20 sessions and sits at just 8.3% of the 20-day range (6.1875–6.789, ex-today), with five consecutive lower daily closes from 6.5675 to 6.2375. Fundamentals are not the problem — they are the only thing holding price up. LME warehouse stocks rose 83,450 MT over 20 reports and COMEX registered inventories added 7,700 short tons, a bearish supply build, yet SHFE warrants collapsed 34.18% d/d to 4,327 MT and Shanghai spot premiums hit a record 2,615 yuan/mt, an extreme physical tightness signal that argues against an outright collapse. Positioning, however, is the dominant force: managed-money net length fell from 61,058 to 34,890 contracts over four weeks while crowd percentile dropped from 60.4 to 34.36 — an active de-risking with room to run, not a washed-out low. ATR14 of 0.1542 (2.47% of price) against RV20 of 21.7% shows elevated realized risk. Trade: short on breaks below 6.1863 (NEXT S1), targeting 6.1352 (NEXT S2), roughly 0.05 above the 20-day low; stop beyond 6.3432. Copper/gold at 1.53 (1Y pctile 79.76%) confirms the pro-growth unwind.