本レポート提供元 MacroTerms.com

データ基準日: 2026-11-06 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

SHG2612 Deep Analysis Report | Neutral Watch: High Volatility Range Oscillation, Premium Turn Negative to Be Verified | 2026-11-07

Direction: Neutral watch. SHG2612 contract [11-06 settlement] 879.22 yuan/gram, down 1.07% from previous settlement, trading at 47.4% position within the 20-day range of 831–913. Core logic: 1) COMEX registered inventory and GLD holdings both declined, but SHF warehouse receipts remained stable, lacking single-sided driving in physical supply and demand;
2) Hedge fund net long crowding reached a three-year high at 90.1%, presenting profit-taking pressure, and the international and China market premium shifted from positive to negative to -0.48%;
3) GVZ implied volatility 25.97% higher than RV20's 23.5%, the options market pricing event risk premium, insufficient single-directional trend certainty. Direction failure conditions: A daily close breaking above 883.31 (next pivot R1) turns bullish; A daily close breaking below 861.75 (next pivot S1) turns bearish. Recommend range oscillation approach, waiting for effective confirmation of boundary breakouts.