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データ基準日: 2026-11-06 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | Bearish Rally into Resistance, 20D -14.9% Trend Intact | 2026-11-07

SHORT SI=F (SIZ26.CMX). Invalidation: a daily settle above NEXT R1 52.478; a break above 52.478 targets 53.014 (NEXT R2) (NEXT S2). Silver's prior-session settle is 51.942 [settle 2026-11-06], down 0.83% on the day yet up 5.41% over five sessions — a counter-trend bounce inside a 20D -14.92% downtrend. Three reasons support the short: (1) the bounce has carried price exactly into the NEXT pivot P at 51.839 / R1 at 52.478 resistance cluster while the 20-day range (ex-today) caps at 61.745 — the dominant trend remains down and the bounce is shallow; (2) positioning is not crowded (CFTC netPct 3.49%, crowding 30.
4), so there is no long-squeeze fuel, while open interest is falling and the 2026-10-13 net of 5,619 has been cut to 4,035 — speculators have been actively de-risking rather than pressing shorts; (3) macro headwinds are real: DXY 102.28 and 10Y 4.86% [2026-11-06] after a far-stronger-than-expected US October non-farm payrolls print, which is a genuinely hostile backdrop for a non-yielding dollar metal. The gold/silver ratio at 78.45 (1Y pctile 93.65%) confirms silver is lagging gold — relative weakness, not leadership. COMEX registered stocks at 101.54 Moz [2026-11-04] and SHFE warrants at 1,372,641 kg [2026-11-06] show ample physical. IV-RV is +1.2 vol points, roughly neutral. Risk: ATR14 is 2.206 (4.25% of price), so the position needs a stop beyond ~54.3 (beyond RETRO R2 54.375).