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データ基準日: 2026-11-06 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Contango, -7.97% 20D Drift Target 436.83 | 2026-11-07

Bearish ZC=F (December 2026 CBOT corn, ZCZ26.CBT); invalidate on a daily settle above 444.83 (NEXT R2). Corn's structural setup has deteriorated faster than price: the 20D -7.97% decline [settle 2026-11-06] is being absorbed by a contango term structure (M1-M2 -14.5, roll yield -12.76%), which means carry is actively rewarding shorts, not merely discounting weakness. Price sits at pos 6% of its 20D range (438.5-488.25) — near the floor — with ATR14 of 6.86 (1.55%) confirming the down drift is orderly, not capitulation; there is no long-base to squeeze. Positioning evidence is thin (no CFTC block supplied), so the call rests on three verifiable legs: (1) trend — five consecutive settled bars with lower highs, from 452 to 442.5; (2) carry — contango of -3.19% between M1 and M2 is a direct short-side subsidy; (3) macro headwind — DXY at 102.28 and 10Y at 4.86% [2026-11-06] are a poor backdrop for dollar-priced commodities. Seasonality is a mild counterweight (up 10 of 15 years, median +0.76%) but is context, not a trigger. The 52W band is 398.5-544.5, so downside to 436.83 (NEXT S2) is a modest extension, not a stretch. No Asia print was captured for this issue; report-date levels are intraday only.