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데이터 기준일: 2026-11-06 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

SHG2612 Deep Analysis Report | Neutral Watch: High Volatility Range Oscillation, Premium Turn Negative to Be Verified | 2026-11-07

Direction: Neutral watch. SHG2612 contract [11-06 settlement] 879.22 yuan/gram, down 1.07% from previous settlement, trading at 47.4% position within the 20-day range of 831–913. Core logic: 1) COMEX registered inventory and GLD holdings both declined, but SHF warehouse receipts remained stable, lacking single-sided driving in physical supply and demand;
2) Hedge fund net long crowding reached a three-year high at 90.1%, presenting profit-taking pressure, and the international and China market premium shifted from positive to negative to -0.48%;
3) GVZ implied volatility 25.97% higher than RV20's 23.5%, the options market pricing event risk premium, insufficient single-directional trend certainty. Direction failure conditions: A daily close breaking above 883.31 (next pivot R1) turns bullish; A daily close breaking below 861.75 (next pivot S1) turns bearish. Recommend range oscillation approach, waiting for effective confirmation of boundary breakouts.