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데이터 기준일: 2026-11-06 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Momentum Below Pivot, Target 575.58 | 2026-11-07

Bearish ZW=F (CBOT December wheat, ZWZ26.CBT); invalidate on a daily settle above 600.67. Settle 591.25 [2026-11-06] is down 1.34% on the day and 11.89% over 20 sessions, with ATR14 at 13.93 (2.36% of price) and RV20 at 14.2% confirming a high-volatility downtrend. Price has settled below the NEXT pivot P at 592.83 and under S1 at 583.42 is the next downside reference; S2 at 575.58 is the target on a break below 583.42. Fundamentals support the bearish bias: the term structure is in contango at M1-M2 -10.5 (-1.72%) with a roll yield of -6.89%, a carry penalty for longs that signals ample nearby supply rather than prompt tightness. Macro headwinds add pressure: DXY at 102.28 and 10Y at 4.86% [2026-11-06] are dollar-positive, and a strong dollar historically weighs on US export competitiveness. Positioning evidence is limited in this dataset, so the call rests on price action, volatility, and the contango structure. Seasonality over the next 20 sessions is mixed (mean -1.48%, median -5.07%, up 6 of 15 years), which is context only and does not offset the bearish setup. No Asia print was available for this issue, so intraday comparisons use the prior settlement only.