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データ基準日: 2026-11-06 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | LONG — Dip Above 4,035 Held, Target 4,157 | 2026-11-08

We stay LONG COMEX December gold (GCZ26). Invalidation is a daily settle below 4,034.6 (next-session S1); above that, structure favors a push toward 4,115.7–4,157.
2. Three reasons: (1) price has recovered from the 3,879.3 20-day low to settle 4,074.9 [settle 11-06], +4.51% over five sessions, reclaiming the 4,040 buyer zone flagged in headlines; (2) physical and flow demand remain firm — COMEX registered stocks fell to 14.34 Moz [11-05] with a 20-report change of -0.73 Moz, while Chinese central-bank buying has run 24 consecutive months; (3) positioning is crowded (netPct 25.96%, 90th 3-year percentile) but not extreme by |z|, and CTA trend signal holds at +26 — momentum is a tailwind, not a contrarian warning yet. Valuation support is real-rate-adjacent: 10Y yield 4.86% and DXY 102.3 are headwinds in principle, but gold has decoupled, and GVZ 25.97 vs RV20 23.5% shows only a modest event premium. Risks: a close below 4,034.6 would target 3,994.3; seasonality is mildly negative (mean -0.23%, 6 of 15 up). Trade: long on strength above 4,075.4 pivot; stop consideration below 4,034.6; first target 4,115.7, then 4,157.
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