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データ基準日: 2026-11-06 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Net-Short Crowding Fails to Offset Contango and 20D -6.89% | 2026-11-08

We stay BEARISH NG=F (January 2027 delivery, NGF27.NYM); invalidation is a daily settle above the NEXT-ladder R2 at 3.106. Three reasons: (1) trend — settle 2.998 [2026-11-06] is down 6.89% over 20 sessions despite the +3.45% five-day bounce, and price sits in the lower half of the 20-day channel at the 59.9% position of the 2.497–3.334 range; (2) carry — the M1-M2 spread is in contango at -0.456 (-13.2%) with a roll yield of -158.43%, a structural penalty for longs that worsens the risk-reward of any counter-trend long; (3) positioning — managed-money net -225,359 contracts [COT 2026-11-03] is a four-week build in shorts, but the crowding percentile of 56.04 is mid-range, so there is no confirmed short squeeze fuel. Technically, ATR14 is 0.1473 (4.91% of price) and RV20 is 50.1%, so the contract remains volatile; the five-day recovery stalled at the 3.04 intraday high [2026-11-06] before settling at 2.998, and the NEXT pivot at 2.986 is the immediate decision line. Seasonality is a headwind: the next 20 sessions average -1.8% (median -8.65%, up 5 of 15 years). Macro support is limited — DXY at 102.3 and 10Y at 4.86% [2026-11-06] are neutral-to-firm. Bias: SHORT on breaks below 2.932 (NEXT S1), targeting 2.866 (NEXT S2).