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データ基準日: 2026-11-06 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Bounce into a Broken Channel, 48.62 Is the Line | 2026-11-08

Bearish SI=F while the 51.303–50.664 support zone holds beneath the 51.942 settle; a daily settle above 53.014 invalidates. The 20-day trend is down −14.92% and the five-session rebound from 48.62 has stalled exactly at the 20-day position marker at 25.3% of a 48.62–61.745 channel — a classic counter-trend bounce into the lower half of a damaged range, not a base. Silver settled 51.942 [2026-11-06], down 0.83% on the day and up 5.41% over five days, with ATR14 at 2.206 (4.25% of price) and RV20 at 44.8% — an explosive volatility regime that makes holding a directional view expensive without a defined trigger. Fundamentals are not the squeeze: COMEX registered stocks fell only 0.6 Moz d/d to 100.94 Moz [2026-11-05] and SLV holdings rose 2.25% over 20 sessions, so physical availability is adequate and investment demand is only modestly recovering. Positioning is the tell — managed-money net at 3.49% of OI sits at just a 30.4 crowding percentile, meaning the market is under-owned and capable of a sharp short-covering rally, which is precisely why we wait for the break rather than pressing here. The gold/silver ratio at 78.45 (1Y percentile 93.65%) confirms silver's persistent underperformance versus gold. Prefer selling weakness through 51.303 toward 50.664; a settle above 53.014 flips the view.