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データ基準日: 2026-11-06 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 7.97% 20-Day Slide, Weak Demand Meets Fund Longs | 2026-11-08

We stay SHORT corn (ZCZ26.CBT) this week; the bearish call is invalidated on a daily settle above 444.83 (NEXT R2). The market has been a one-directional slide: settle 441.5 [settle 2026-11-06], down 7.97% over 20 sessions, with every one of the last five settled bars closing lower than the prior bar's open except 11-04. ATR14 is 6.86 (1.55% of price), so a full daily range is worth roughly 7 cents — volatility is elevated but not panic. The 20-day channel (ex-today) is 438.5–504.75, and price sits at 6% of that range, i.e. pinned to the bottom. The supply-demand picture is the driver: the term structure is in deep contango, M1-M2 at -13.75 cents (-3.02%) with a roll yield of -12.08%, which is the market paying longs to hold and a clear signal of abundant nearby supply. Macro headwinds add pressure: DXY at 102.3 and 10Y at 4.86% [2026-11-06] are a strong-dollar, high-rate combination that historically weighs on dollar-priced agricultural exports. Positioning is the main risk to the trade: money-manager net longs are elevated versus the recent trend, so a short squeeze on an unexpected export sale is the tail risk. Cross-asset ratios confirm the growth-sensitive backdrop is not rescuing corn: copper/gold at 1.53 sits at only the 45.5% 3-year percentile. Seasonality is a mild counterweight (mean -0.76%, median +0.2% over the next 20 sessions), not a reason to fight the trend.