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データ基準日: 2026-11-06 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybeans (ZS=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Oversold Bounce Within Downtrend, 1173.5 Invalidates | 2026-11-08

Bearish ZS=F (January 2027 CBOT soybeans, ZSF27.CBT) while the 11-06 settle 1189 holds below the 20-day high 1299.25; invalidation is a daily settle above 1198 (NEXT R2). The downtrend is unbroken: 5D -2.72%, 20D -7.97%, settle 1189 [2026-11-06] sits in the bottom 9.2% of the 20-day range 1178–1297.75, and the last five settled bars show lower highs on each session (1204.75 → 1189). Fundamentals do not rescue the chart: the US crush margin is 1.981 USD/bu [2026-11-06], down from 2.6054 twenty sessions earlier and at only a 28.57% 1-year percentile — demand-side processing economics are deteriorating, not absorbing supply. Term structure confirms the pressure: M1–M2 contango at -5.5 (-0.46%) with roll yield -2.75% penalizes longs. Realized volatility 9.2% (RV20) against ATR14 16.34 (1.37% of price) shows an orderly grind lower, not a panic — there is no capitulation washout to buy. Seasonality is a mild +0.49% mean over the next 20 sessions (9 of 15 years up), context only. Macro headwinds persist: DXY 102.3 and 10Y 4.859 [2026-11-06] are dollar/rate support that historically weighs on dollar-priced grains. China CPI/PPI on 11-08 ET is the week's catalyst for ZS. Prefer shorts on strength toward NEXT R1 1193.5; only a daily settle above 1198 flips the view.