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데이터 기준일: 2026-11-06 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Momentum and Flows Turn Against Price | 2026-11-08

Bearish COMEX copper (HG=F, December 2026 contract HGZ26): the trend has turned down and spec positioning is being liquidated, so we expect price to break below the next-session S1 at 6.1863 and target S2 at 6.1352. Copper settled at 6.2375 on 2026-11-06, down 0.52% on the day and down 3.77% over five sessions, with ATR14 at 0.1542 (2.47% of price) and RV20 at 21.7% confirming an active, high-range sell-off rather than a quiet drift. Managed-money net length collapsed from 61,058 contracts on 2026-10-13 to 34,890 by 2026-11-03, a 43% reduction in three weeks, while the crowding percentile fell to 34.36 — the market is de-risking, not stabilizing. Fundamentals do not bail out the bulls: LME warehouse stocks rose 83,650 MT over the last 20 reports and COMEX registered stocks added 2,700 short tons, so exchange inventories are building into the decline. SHFE warrants are thin at 4,327 MT, but that is a local tightness, not a global deficit. The copper/gold ratio at 1.53 sits at only the 45.5% 3-year percentile, and a rising dollar (DXY 102.3, +0.74%) plus a 4.86% 10-year yield add macro headwinds. Invalidation is a daily settle above the next-session pivot at 6.2392; below that, the path of least resistance is lower.