본 리포트 제공 MacroTerms.com

데이터 기준일: 2026-11-06 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

Rebar (RB2701) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bearish: Position-Trimming Rebound Loses Momentum, Maintain Short Allocation Below 3055 | 2026-11-08

Direction: Bearish. RB2701 [11-06 settlement] 3041, down -1.36% over 20 days and at the 42.7% percentile of its 20-day range, with trend momentum clearly to the downside. The current rebound is short covering driven by the dominant contract shedding 49,525 lots, not active long entry; net long positions across the top 20 seats are only 7,846 lots, lacking support from trend-following buying. Fundamentals are bearish: key steelmakers' inventories [late 10-month] of 14.90 million tons fell -13.5% MoM, but social inventories [early 10-month] of 9.39 million tons turned higher at +2.7% MoM, indicating a shift from mill to social inventories and weak end-user uptake. Invalidation condition: a daily close above the next pivot R1 at 3054.67.