1. Core Views
Macro-Commodity Resonance A strong US dollar, combined with active long liquidation ahead of CPI, drove a broad correction across precious metals and base metals, while the night session saw a geopolitical premium restore crude oil and some black-series products, creating a clear sector divergence. Precious Metals & Base Metals Gold and silver fell sharply in the day session before stabilizing in the night session in line with international markets; if gold breaks below the 897.24 support, it will target 870, while holding above 905 could see a recovery to 915. Silver, with its higher volatility, will target 13200 if it breaks below 13426.67, and could test 14200 if it holds above 13946.67. Crude Oil & Black Series Crude oil closed the night session at 739.8, supported by a geopolitical premium, with WTI breaking through USD 100; if SC holds above 741 it will target 760, while a break below 695 would retest 675. The black series diverged: rebar settlement at 3072 is near the 20-day lower band of 3053, and the coil-rebar spread of CNY 168 at the 4th percentile is capping hot-rolled coil; if rebar loses 3054 it will target 3020, and if hot-rolled coil fails to rebound above 3257 it will target 3220.
2. Night Session & Overseas Recap
Overnight Transmission The night session showed clear sector rotation, with crude oil and the black series staging a significant recovery after day-session weakness, while precious metals and agricultural products remained under pressure. Internationally, WTI and Brent both broke through USD 100, lifting INE crude oil +2.32% in the night session, while LME copper and gold also held relatively steady in the Asian morning, providing some support to related Chinese products. The largest night-session moves were concentrated in crude oil, the black series and precious metals, with crude oil posting the biggest gain and rebar and hot-rolled coil also rebounding notably.
- Crude oil night session close 739.8, +3.93% vs day close, +2.32% vs settlement, driven by WTI breaking USD 100.
- Rebar night session close 3086, +0.39% vs day close, +0.46% vs settlement, as the black series rebounded across the board.
- SHFE Gold night session close 898.62, -0.35% vs day close, -0.02% vs settlement; international gold settlement +0.26%.
- SHFE Silver night session close 13835, -1.38% vs day close, -0.39% vs settlement; international silver settlement +0.26%.
- Iron Ore night session close 685.5, +1.93% vs day close, +1.71% vs settlement, leading the black series higher.
3. Macro Landscape
FX & US Dollar The US dollar index held firm ahead of the CPI release, driving a sharp day-session adjustment in gold and silver, but as WTI broke through USD 100 in the night session, safe-haven sentiment eased and precious metals stabilized. A stronger dollar pressures China's base metals import costs, though LME copper and aluminium held relatively steady in the Asian morning, providing some support to related Chinese products.
China Policy & Data China will release several key economic data points this week, including fixed-asset investment, industrial production and retail sales, which will have a direct impact on the black series and chemicals sectors. Steel social inventories of 9.39m tonnes rose 250k tonnes month-on-month, showing demand-side pressure, while inventories at key steel mills fell 1.43m tonnes, indicating strong willingness among mills to destock.
Global Macro US crude inventory data and the EIA report had a significant impact on oil prices; after WTI broke through USD 100, the geopolitical premium pushed prices higher, providing cost support to China's crude and chemicals sectors. Meanwhile, US tech stocks were sold off, lifting safe-haven sentiment and providing some support to precious metals.
4. Inventories, Warrants & Basis
Spot Tightness Theme Warrant data show notable changes in precious metals and some black-series products: SHFE Silver warrants fell 12,335 tonnes, indicating a relatively tight spot market, while SHFE Copper warrants rose 1,453 tonnes, suggesting some easing on the supply side. On the basis, rebar and hot-rolled coil basis remained relatively stable, but the coil-rebar spread at the 4th percentile points to relative weakness in hot-rolled coil.
| Instrument | Warrants | Unit | Daily Change | Date |
|---|
| SHFE Silver | 1,402,972 | kg | -12,335 (-0.87%) | 2026-10-16 |
| SHFE Copper | 36,386 | tonnes | +1,453 (+4.16%) | 2026-10-16 |
| Rebar | 82,947 | tonnes | 0 (+0%) | 2026-10-16 |
| Hot-rolled Coil | 238,266 | tonnes | -1,174 (-0.49%) | 2026-10-16 |
| Iron Ore | 2,300 | lots | 0 (+0%) | 2026-10-16 |
- SHFE Silver warrants fell 12,335 tonnes, showing a relatively tight spot market and supporting a silver price rebound.
- SHFE Copper warrants rose 1,453 tonnes, indicating some supply-side easing and capping upside for copper.
- Hot-rolled coil warrants fell 1,174 tonnes, showing some demand recovery, though the coil-rebar spread remains low.
5. Positioning & Fund Flows
Long-Short Balance Positioning data show a clear divergence in long-short forces across precious metals and the black series. SHFE Gold and SHFE Silver net long positions both expanded, indicating stronger bullish momentum, while SHFE Copper and SHFE Aluminium net short positions expanded, showing bears in control. Within the black series, rebar and hot-rolled coil net long positions narrowed, suggesting weakening bullish momentum.
- SHFE Gold net long 168,988 lots, up 9,557 lots from the prior day, bullish momentum strengthening.
- SHFE Silver net long 48,114 lots, up 2,009 lots from the prior day, bullish momentum strengthening.
- SHFE Copper net short 29,471 lots, up 5,777 lots from the prior day, bears in control.
- Rebar net long 11,042 lots, down 4,189 lots from the prior day, bullish momentum weakening.
- Hot-rolled coil net long 101,969 lots, down 1,723 lots from the prior day, bullish momentum weakening.
6. Technicals & Trade Strategy
Best Trade Today
No trade ideas met the entry criteria today (stop-loss distance and risk-reward check); stay on the sidelines.
Precious Metals & Crude Oil Gold and silver adjusted sharply in the day session but stabilized in the night session; if gold breaks below the 897.24 support it will target 870, while holding above 905 could see a recovery to 915. Crude oil was supported by a geopolitical premium in the night session, with WTI breaking through USD 100; if SC holds above 741 it will target 760, while a break below 695 would retest 675. The black series diverged: rebar settlement at 3072 is near the 20-day lower band of 3053, and the coil-rebar spread of CNY 168 at the 4th percentile is capping hot-rolled coil; if rebar loses 3054 it will target 3020, and if hot-rolled coil fails to rebound above 3257 it will target 3220.
7. Inter-Commodity Spreads
Spread Structure Reflecting Industry Margins Inter-commodity spread data show PTA processing fees at the 23rd percentile, indicating room for polyester chain margins to expand; the coil-rebar spread of CNY 168 at the 4th percentile points to relative weakness in hot-rolled coil; and the soybean-palm oil spread of -CNY 630 at the 97th percentile shows soybean oil relatively strong. These spread structures reflect the current distribution of industry margins and provide a basis for inter-commodity trading.
- PTA processing fee CNY 303/t, daily change +91, 5-day +60, 120-day percentile 23%.
- Coil-rebar spread CNY 168/t, daily change -3, 5-day -7, 120-day percentile 4%.
- Soybean-palm oil spread -CNY 630/t, daily change -38, 5-day -1, 120-day percentile 97%.
8. Risk Factors
Macro Policy & FX Volatility If the US dollar index extends its strength, it will suppress the financial attributes of precious metals and base metals, pressuring the sectors broadly; watch for liquidity tightening risks from an unexpectedly strong dollar. Geopolitics & Supply Disruption A further escalation in the Middle East could trigger sharp swings in crude oil prices, transmitting to chemicals costs, while supply-side disruptions such as falling Peruvian copper output should be monitored for their impact on base metals. Data & Trading Mechanism Risk Daily data for some instruments have gaps, which may distort technical signals; monitor data restoration closely to avoid misjudgments based on incomplete information.
- US dollar stronger than expected: further adjustment risk for precious metals and base metals if the dollar index continues to rise.
- Geopolitical risk: a further escalation in the Middle East could cause sharp oil price swings, affecting chemicals costs.
- Data gap risk: daily data gaps for some instruments may invalidate trading strategies; monitor data restoration closely.
- Policy delivery below expectations: if this week's fixed-asset investment and GDP data come in weaker than expected, the demand logic for the black series will be undermined.
9. This Week's Watchlist
Dense Macro Data Releases Core economic data will land in concentration this week; fixed-asset investment and industrial production will directly shape near-term demand expectations for the black complex and chemicals, and we should guard against sector pullbacks if the prints disappoint. Policy and Geopolitics in Resonance The LPR fixings and GDP growth due October 20 will test the strength of growth-stabilization policy, while the geopolitical premium persists after WTI crude broke above USD 100; oil volatility may push chemical cost curves higher still.
- 10-19 10:00 Fixed-asset investment ytd/y, industrial production y/y and retail sales y/y are released; watch the linkage across black, nonferrous and chemical sectors.
- 10-20 09:15 1-year and 5-year LPR fixings; a cut would be supportive for infrastructure and the property chain, while a hold would weigh on black complex valuations.
- 10-20 09:30 GDP y/y; if the actual print comes in below the prior reading, risk-off sentiment may build.
- Overseas, a large draw in EIA crude inventories would reinforce the bullish oil thesis; for SC crude, watch the validity of a break above CNY 741/bbl.
Review of Yesterday's Views (2026-10-16)
Yesterday's rebar long strategy stayed on hold, the core logic being that price is nearing key support but has not yet triggered a valid reversal signal. The settlement price of CNY 3,072 sits at the 23.3rd percentile of the 20-day range; although it is close to the lower bound of CNY 3,053, the open interest build with a slight price decline shows longs retreating actively, so we need confirmation of a firm hold above or a break below before calling direction.
- Technicals: rebar day-session settlement at CNY 3,072, at the 23.3rd percentile of the 20-day range of CNY 3,053–3,143, near the lower support zone.
- Spread constraint: the HRC–rebar spread at CNY 168/t is at the 4th percentile of the past 120 days; the low level limits downside in HRC and indirectly supports rebar's floor.
- Flows: rebar main contract net long positioning of 11,042 lots narrowed by 4,189 lots from the prior day, showing long strength has eased; beware correction risk.
No approved trade setups today.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.