1. Core Views
Macro-Commodity Resonance A strong US dollar, combined with active long liquidation ahead of CPI, drove a broad correction across precious metals and nonferrous metals, while the night session saw a geopolitical premium restore crude oil and some black-series products, creating a clear sector divergence. Precious Metals & Nonferrous Gold and silver slumped sharply in the day session before stabilizing in the night session in line with international markets; if gold breaks below the 897.24 support, it will target 870, while holding above 905 opens a recovery toward 915. Silver, with higher volatility, will target 13,200 if it breaks below 13,426.67, and 14,200 if it holds above 13,946.67. Crude Oil & Black Series Crude oil closed the night session at 739.8, supported by a geopolitical premium, with WTI breaking through USD 100; if SC holds above 741 it will target 760, while a break below 695 would retest 675. The black series diverged: rebar settlement at 3,072 is near the 20-day lower band of 3,053, and the coil-rebar spread of CNY 168 sits at the 4th percentile, capping hot-rolled coil; if rebar loses 3,054 it will target 3,020, while hot-rolled coil faces 3,220 if a rebound to 3,257 stalls.
2. Night Session & Overseas Recap
Night Session Theme Overnight, crude oil and the black series led gains, driven by geopolitical events and restocking expectations, while precious metals and some chemicals remained under pressure after the day session's adjustment. Internationally, WTI broke through USD 100 and Brent rose to USD 109.86, directly lifting INE crude to a night session close of 739.8, up +3.93% versus the day session close; in China's black series, iron ore and rebar rebounded in the night session on international sentiment, with iron ore closing at 685.5, up +1.93% versus the day session close. Other products such as SHFE Gold and SHFE Silver continued to consolidate weakly in the night session, but losses narrowed, signaling a phase of short-covering exhaustion.
- Crude oil closed the night session at 739.8, up +3.93% versus the day session close and +2.32% versus settlement, with the geopolitical premium dominant as WTI broke through USD 100.
- Iron ore closed the night session at 685.5, up +1.93% versus the day session close, as restocking expectations in the black series rose, but warrants were unchanged and the basis remains weak.
- SHFE Gold closed the night session at 898.62, down -0.35% versus the day session close; precious metals remain in an overall adjustment, and the validity of the 897.24 support needs watching.
- Rebar closed the night session at 3,086, up +0.39% versus the day session close; black-series divergence persists, with the coil-rebar spread capping hot-rolled coil's rebound.
- SHFE Silver closed the night session at 13,835, down -1.38% versus the day session close; with volatility higher than gold, a break below 13,821.00 would open downside space.
3. Macro Landscape
FX & US Dollar The US dollar index extended its strength, while USD/CNH settled at 6.685 on 2026-10-16 with a 0.14% intraday range; the exchange rate is therefore not what is driving import costs, and copper and aluminum premiums stay governed by the international-to-China price gap. The international-to-China price ratio for gold and silver shows China premiums of +0.35% and +0.8% respectively, reflecting lingering Chinese safe-haven demand; however, in the night session international gold settled at 4,181.1 and silver at 57.305, both up 0.26%, indicating stronger onshore-offshore linkage.
China Policy & Data China's macro data releases are dense this week, with key indicators such as GDP, industrial output and retail sales due in a cluster on October 19, leaving market sentiment highly sensitive. Expectations for fixed-asset investment and real estate investment remain weak, weighing on black-series demand, but the open interest build and rebound in night session rebar and hot-rolled coil show some capital trading policy expectations. Steel social inventories stand at 939 10k tonnes, up 25 10k tonnes month-on-month, while key steelmaker inventories are 1,565 10k tonnes, down 143 10k tonnes month-on-month; the divergent inventory structure eases destocking pressure at mills, but social inventory accumulation caps price elasticity.
International Macro With US CPI data approaching, markets are pricing in rate-hike expectations early, and dollar strength is suppressing overall commodity valuations. The crude geopolitical premium is offset by changes in agricultural inventories: the soybean-palm spread at -CNY 630/t sits at the 97th percentile and the oil-meal ratio at 2.696, showing relative weakness in oils. Internationally, soybeans settled at 1,261.25, down 0.14%, a cost drag on Chinese soybean meal, but the night session soybean meal close at 3,267 with narrowing losses shows Chinese feed demand still provides support.
4. Inventories, Warrants & Basis
Spot Tightness Theme Black-series warrants were broadly stable: iron ore and coke warrants were unchanged, while coking coal warrants rose +273 lots, signaling stronger mill restocking appetite. Among chemicals, PTA and methanol warrants accumulated sharply, up +1,002 and +400 warrants respectively, raising supply pressure; agricultural warrants were little changed, with rapeseed meal -750 warrants and sugar -258 warrants, showing destocking in some products. On the basis, rebar and hot-rolled coil basis remain weak, with the coil-rebar spread of CNY 168 at the 4th percentile capping hot-rolled coil rebounds; the international-to-China crude ratio is -3.08%, making China relatively cheaper and tilting the import window toward opening.
| Product | Warrant Quantity | Unit | Daily Change | Date |
|---|
| SHFE Gold | 116,928 | kg | +900 (+0.78%) | 2026-10-16 |
| SHFE Silver | 1,402,972 | kg | -12,335 (-0.87%) | 2026-10-16 |
| SHFE Copper | 36,386 | tonnes | +1,453 (+4.16%) | 2026-10-16 |
| SHFE Aluminum | 90,995 | tonnes | -4,077 (-4.29%) | 2026-10-16 |
| Rebar | 82,947 | tonnes | 0 (+0%) | 2026-10-16 |
| Iron Ore | 2,300 | lots | 0 (+0%) | 2026-10-16 |
| Coking Coal | 1,650 | lots | +273 (+19.83%) | 2026-10-16 |
| Crude Oil | 4,216,000 | barrels | 0 (+0%) | 2026-10-16 |
| PTA | 19,590 | warrants | +1,002 (+5.39%) | 2026-10-16 |
| Methanol | 6,583 | warrants | +400 (+6.47%) | 2026-10-16 |
| Soybean Meal | 52,939 | lots | 0 (+0%) | 2026-10-16 |
| Palm Oil | 5,066 | lots | +303 (+6.36%) | 2026-10-16 |
| Rapeseed Meal | 6,380 | warrants | -750 (-10.52%) | 2026-10-16 |
| Sugar | 24,840 | warrants | -258 (-1.03%) | 2026-10-16 |
| Soda Ash | 3,163 | warrants | -400 (-11.23%) | 2026-10-16 |
| Lithium Carbonate | 25,640 | lots | -1,090 (-4.08%) | 2026-10-16 |
5. Positioning & Fund Flows
Long-Short Balance Longs in the black series and chemicals actively built positions, with net longs in rebar, hot-rolled coil, methanol and ethylene glycol expanding, showing capital trading policy expectations; precious metals and agricultural products saw short covering, with SHFE Gold and SHFE Silver rising on open interest cuts, though the night session remained weak. Nonferrous metals such as copper, aluminum and zinc also saw short covering, but the overall net short structure is unchanged: SHFE Copper net shorts stand at 29,471 lots, up 5,777 lots from the prior day, showing persistent industrial hedging pressure.
- SHFE Gold net longs at 168,988 lots, up 9,557 lots from the prior day; longs actively built, but the night session remains weak and the 897.24 support needs watching.
- Rebar net longs at 11,042 lots, down 4,189 lots from the prior day; longs cut, but the night session close at 3,086 shows some capital returning.
- Methanol net longs at 138,523 lots, up 11,985 lots from the prior day; chemical longs are active, with warrants accumulating but capital still bullish on demand.
- Soybean meal net shorts at 448,440 lots, down 48,269 lots from the prior day; short covering, but international soybeans fell 0.14%, leaving a cost drag.
- SHFE Copper net shorts at 29,471 lots, up 5,777 lots from the prior day; nonferrous shorts dominate, with warrants up +4.16% adding pressure.
6. Technicals & Trade Strategy
Best Trade Today
No trade ideas met the inclusion criteria today (stop-loss distance and risk/reward validation); stay on the sidelines.
The market is in a critical phase of directional selection. Black-series commodities are repeatedly testing support near the lower bound of the 20-day range; crude oil is holding high-level oscillation driven by geopolitical premium; precious metals and non-ferrous metals are consolidating under pressure from a strong US dollar. Technically, if Rebar holds firmly above 3085.67, it will open up room for a rebound; a break below 3062.33 would target 3020. Hot-rolled coil is constrained by the low coil-Rebar spread, with a high probability of resistance at 3252.67 on any rebound.
- Rebar: watch whether 3084.33 (R1) holds; 3062.33 (S1) below is the key defense level.
- Hot-rolled coil: clear resistance near 3252.67 (R1); 3229.67 (S1) below as support reference.
- Crude oil: 726.03 (R1) is the breakout watch level; 704.03 (S1) below is the invalidation reference.
- Precious metals: gold 897.24 (S1) and silver 13821.00 (S1) are important supports; a break below would open downside space.
7. Inter-Commodity Spreads
Spread structure PTA processing fee CNY 303/t, daily change +91, percentile 23%, indicating chemical margins remain depressed; Rebar paper gross spread CNY 1,012/t, percentile 85%, indicating relatively healthy steel mill margins; coil-Rebar spread CNY 168/t, percentile 4%, reflecting relative weakness in hot-rolled coil; soybean-palm spread CNY -630/t, percentile 97%, reflecting relative weakness in oils; oil-meal ratio 2.696, percentile 34%, with the strong-meal/weak-oil pattern persisting.
- PTA processing fee CNY 303/t, daily change +91, 5-day +60, percentile 23%; chemical margins remain depressed.
- Rebar paper gross spread CNY 1,012/t, daily change +2, 5-day +34, percentile 85%; steel mill margins relatively healthy.
- Coil-Rebar spread CNY 168/t, daily change -3, 5-day -7, percentile 4%; hot-rolled coil relatively weak, capping rebound room.
- Soybean-palm spread CNY -630/t, daily change -38, 5-day -1, percentile 97%; oils relatively weak; oil-meal ratio 2.696.
- Oil-meal ratio 2.696, daily change +0.025, 5-day +0.046, percentile 34%; strong-meal/weak-oil pattern persists.
8. Risk Factors
- US dollar strengthens beyond expectations; if the DXY breaks 110, precious metals and non-ferrous metals may come under further pressure, raising the risk of gold breaking 897.24 and silver breaking 13426.67.
- China macro data disappoints; if GDP and industrial output fall below 4.4% and 5.4%, black-series demand expectations would be dashed, and Rebar and hot-rolled coil could quickly probe 3020 and 3220.
- Geopolitical escalation; if the Middle East situation deteriorates, crude oil could break 760, but the night session has partially priced this in — beware of a sell-the-news pullback.
- Data gap risk: some instruments, e.g. DCE.BB, have missed daily updates, so no trading view can be provided for the day; upon resumption, accumulated information may be reflected in a single move, causing price gaps.
9. This Week's Watchlist
Macro data On Oct 19 at 09:30 Beijing time, New Home Prices m/m and Energy Production are released; at 10:00, GDP q/y, Industrial Production y/y, Retail Sales y/y and others. Focus on whether GDP reaches 4.4% and whether industrial output exceeds 5.4%, which will directly affect demand expectations for black-series and chemicals.
Industry data On Oct 20 at 09:15, the LPR is released; a cut to the 5-y LPR would boost property and infrastructure expectations, benefiting Rebar and hot-rolled coil. On Oct 22, central reserve frozen pork purchases of 13,800 tonnes may lift sentiment in the hog and breeding chain, though the impact on agricultural commodities overall is limited.
International market linkage Watch whether WTI crude holds USD 100 and whether LME copper breaks USD 6.6/lb; strength in overseas markets would drive a rebound in China's non-ferrous and crude oil sectors, while weakness could extend the correction.
Yesterday's Review (2026-10-16)
Yesterday Rebar's day-session settlement was 3072, and the night session closed at 3086, +0.39% versus the day-session close, indicating some capital re-entered near the lower bound of the 20-day range. Rebar sits at the 15.8th percentile of the 20-day range, near the 3053 support; the coil-Rebar spread at CNY 168/t, at the 4th percentile, caps hot-rolled coil's rebound room, and sector divergence persists.
- Rebar settlement 3072, night session close 3086, +0.39% versus day-session close.
- Rebar at the 15.8th percentile of the 20-day range, near the lower-bound support of 3053.
- Coil-Rebar spread at CNY 168/t, at the 4th percentile, capping hot-rolled coil's rebound room.
- 1 view · limit triggers 0/1 (0%) · average MFE n/a · average MAE n/a · realized n/a.
No trade setups cleared for publication today.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.