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データ基準日: 2026-09-30 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

000300.SS Deep Dive | Bullish Rebound on Oversold Conditions | 2026-10-08

We maintain a bullish bias on 000300.SS, targeting a rebound from current oversold levels as technical support aligns with fundamental supply constraints. The instrument has corrected sharply over the past month, falling 5.5% over 20 days and 4.11% over five days, yet remains within the upper quartile of its 52-week range. This pullback has created a high-probability long setup near the 4323.57 support zone, where the 20-day moving average and recent lows converge. While macro headwinds from a strong dollar and elevated yields persist, the market's reaction suggests these factors are already priced in. A sustained break above the 4370 resistance level would confirm the reversal, with targets extending toward the 4602 resistance. The current volatility environment, with realized volatility at 13.4% and implied volatility relatively subdued, offers favorable risk-reward for directional exposure. We advise accumulation on dips near support, with a strict invalidation below 4320.